August 18 Market Daily Report

Market Daily: Respond Rationally to Volatility, Stick to Quality Targets

1. Core Market Dynamics

- Significant capital turnover: The weekend profit-taking by whales triggered market turnover, with listed companies absorbing the selling pressure, raising the average cost in the market, and long-term expectations improving.
- Key data changes: MicroStrategy hints at another increase in Bitcoin holdings; the number of Ethereum staking validators exiting the queue continues to rise, with the amount waiting to be sold approaching 600,000 ETH, facing significant short-term pressure.
- Price trend: Ethereum has fallen below $4300, with a decline of over 10% from its peak. The hourly chart shows a volatile downward trend, and short-term support levels need to be tested at 4150 and 4050.

2. Trend Analysis

- Short-term rhythm: The first half of the week is expected to maintain range fluctuations, and altcoins can focus on strong assets when Ethereum tests support (such as link, ip, doge, ltc).
- Mid-term outlook: The trend remains intact, listed companies will announce the increase in holdings and capital amount on working days, there is still a possibility of hitting a new high in the second half of the week, the pullback is a normal adjustment, and it is an opportunity to get on board before the interest rate cut.
- Macro Focus: Powell's speech this Saturday is crucial for the expectations of a rate cut in September. The current probability of a rate cut in the market exceeds 80%, which may become a turning point to break the range volatility.

3. Operational Strategies and Mindset Suggestions

- Trading method: Range-bound markets are suitable for grid trading, but one must be wary of the "sell-off" risk in trending markets. Adhere to the established strategy and avoid frequent intraday swing trading to prevent lowering overall returns.
- Target Selection: Prioritize holding "reliable currencies" such as strong whale altcoins and projects with narrative logic, using robust strategies like "doubling the principal."
- Mindset management: Do not let short-term price adjustments shake your confidence; this pullback is a "conscientious pullback," with no malicious dumping. It is a normal handover between ancient whales selling and institutions absorbing; for those who are not confident in their holdings, it is advisable to sell decisively. Maintaining a calm mindset is essential for long-term stability in the market.

4. Long-term Perspective

High-quality projects are gradually becoming standardized, and the surviving targets have long-term value. It is recommended to retain some funds to respond to potential major hotspot opportunities, while also paying attention to projects supported by consortiums and backed by ETFs. When there is a pullback to the range support and a drop below the cost price, one can consider increasing their position.