With the CPI data set to be released, the US stock market and Bitcoin market have been in a range-bound state recently. This phenomenon is not merely a reflection of risk-averse sentiment, but rather indicates that the market is adopting a cautious attitude towards the upcoming data release. Although expectations are not particularly optimistic, it is also unlikely that the market will experience a significant crash.

Tariff issues are no longer the focus of the market, and investors have become accustomed to them. The current core conflict lies in the game between the radicals and the conservatives. As long as the data does not deviate significantly, the possibility of interest rate cuts will increase. The conservatives will only loosen their control over interest rates if they see that inflation is indeed decreasing. In this situation, regardless of whether the data is good or bad, the market reaction may be relatively mild, as a rate cut in September has become a high-probability event.

It is worth noting that last month the core CPI in the United States was only 2.9% year-on-year, a figure that is not concerning. The focus of the market has now shifted to the extent of interest rate cuts, with the debate now centered around whether it will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points. If it is 50 basis points, it could trigger a strong market rebound, and the price of Bitcoin may see a significant increase.

From the market performance perspective, Bitcoin's recent pullback has basically been digested. The brief decline before the US stock market closed actually led to an increase in spot premiums, indicating that the selling pressure in the spot market has been temporarily released, while also attracting new short sellers to enter the market. As long as there are no major negative surprises in the CPI data, Bitcoin may still break new highs this week. The current liquidity structure remains biased towards the bulls, which supports Bitcoin's rise.