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In the crypto world Futures Trading, "fear of heights and fear of lows" (the fear of shorting at high positions or going long at low positions) is a common psychological barrier, stemming from the fear of extreme market Fluctuation and cognitive bias. This mindset can easily lead to missed opportunities or erroneous operations. Here are specific analyses and coping suggestions:
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### **1. Why do fears of high and low occur?**
1. **Anchoring Effect**
- Overly focusing on historical prices (e.g., "Bitcoin once dropped to $3000" or "rose to $69000"), believing that the current high/low prices are unsustainable, while ignoring new market trends.
2. **Fear of Loss**
- Afraid of continued Fluctuation after shorting at the top and going long at the bottom, leading to liquidation.
3. **Excessive Linear Thinking**
- Believing that "after a lot of increases, there must be a drop" or "after a lot of drops, there must be an increase", ignoring the continuation of trends (such as the crazy peak in a bull market or the panic sell-off in a bear market).
4. **Lack of Trading System**
- No clear entry/exit rules, relying on subjective feeling for decision-making.
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### **2. How to Overcome Fear of Heights and Fear of Lows?**
#### **1. Technical Aspect: Replace Feelings with Rules**
- **Trend Following Strategy**
Use moving averages (such as EMA20/50), trend lines, or the ADX indicator to determine the trend direction and trade in the direction of the trend. For example:
- **Upward Trend**: Don't guess the peak, just wait for a pullback to go long or follow through on a new high.
- **Downward Trend**: Do not catch the bottom, just wait for a rebound to go short or follow the trend to short.
- **Key Level Validation**
Act again at support/resistance levels combined with price reactions (such as Pinbar, volume breakout), rather than simply "highs and lows".
- **Build positions in batches**
For example, in an upward trend, use 50% of your position to go long with the trend, and wait for a pullback to add to your position with the remaining 50%, reducing psychological pressure.
#### **2. Psychological Aspect: Accepting Uncertainty**
- **Profit and Loss Origin**
Any strategy may incur a stop loss. The essence of fear of heights and fear of lows is an attempt to avoid risk, but risk coexists with reward.
- **Simulated Backtesting**
Validate through historical data: In a trending market, "fear of heights and fear of lows" can lead to significant profit loss (for example, Bitcoin increased from $20,000 to $45,000 in 2023, and any shorting in between would incur losses).
- **Set hard stop-loss rules**
For example: when going long, set the stop loss 2% below the previous low; when shorting, set the stop loss 2% above the previous high. Clearly understand the risks before entering the market.
#### **3. Classic Scenario Response**
- **Case 1: Fear of Heights During a Surge**
- **Wrong Approach**: Shorting because the price has risen by 50%, thinking "it should pull back".
- **Correct Approach**: If the RSI is not overbought (e.g. <70), and the trading volume continues to increase, cautiously go long with a light position, setting the stop loss at the recent low.
- **Case 2: Fear of Low During Plunge**
- **Mistake**: Buying the dip because the price has "halved".
- **Correct Approach**: Wait for a daily level bottoming signal (such as a long lower shadow + decreased volume), or re-enter after breaking the descending trend line.
#### **4. Position and Leverage Management**
- High fluctuation, lower leverage (e.g., <5x) to avoid liquidation due to minor pullbacks.
- Position size controlled at 1-2% of total funds per trade to reduce the psychological impact of a single failure.
---
### **3. Beware of Traps in Extreme Market Conditions**
1. **"Death Spiral" and "FOMO Peak"**
- Altcoins can drop by 99% in a bear market and may soar 100 times in a bull market. Technical indicators become ineffective and must be combined with market sentiment (such as the greed and fear index).
2. **Liquidity Trap**
- Low market cap coins are prone to price manipulation; even if the direction is correct, losses may occur, so avoid trading during low liquidity periods.
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### **4. Summary**
The essence of the "fear of heights and fear of lows" in crypto world Futures Trading is a lack of understanding of trends. Solution:
1. **Establish a system**: Make decisions based on trend indicators and key levels, rather than absolute price values.
2. **Manage Risk**: Strict stop-loss + low leverage, ensuring that mistakes do not damage the principal.
3. **Training Mindset**: Accept that stop-loss is a trading cost, and avoid the obsession with "perfect timing".
> **Reminder**: In the crypto market, the strength of trends is beyond imagination. ETH rose from $10 to $1400 in 2017, then dropped to $80 in 2018; in 2021 it rose from $700 to $4800—any "fear of heights" shorting or "fear of lows" bottom-fishing during this process could be fatal. The only safety rope is rules and discipline.